Pakatan Harapan wins GE14

  • Pakatan Harapan (PH) has won enough seats in Malaysia’s 14th General Elections (“GE14”) to form the country’s federal government with a simple majority.
  • The final vote count for parliament seats stands at 113 seats for Pakatan Harapan, 79 seats for Barisan Nasional (BN), 18 seats for PAS, 8 seats for Parti Warisan Sabah, 3 Independent seats and 1 Sabah STAR Party seat.
  • Preliminary estimates show that PH has won around 45% of the popular vote, followed by BN at 32% and PAS with 16%.
  • Chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad is expected to be officially sworn in as Prime Minister by the Yang di-Pertuan Agong on 10 May 2018, after which he will be appointing members of his Cabinet as well as his Deputy Prime Minister, who is expected to be PKR PResident Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail,
  • Tun Dr Mahathir has also stated that PH would work towards the pardoning of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim (Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah’s husband) and eventually make him Prime Minister.
  • Additionally, PAS has retained the Kelantan state government while at the same time winning control of the the Terengganu state government.
  • PH also won the states of Negeri Sembilan, Melaka and Johor which were previously held by BN.

 

BN suffers heavy losses

  • Notably, this is the first time that BN has lost the General Elections. BN had 132 seats out of 222 seats in the lower house of Parliament (Dewan Rakyat) when it was dissolved on 16 March 2018. In GE14, BN only managed to win 79 seats.
  • The BN’s share of the popular vote also declined, to 35% from 38% in GE13.
  • BN has also lost state governments which were considered its “strongholds”, namely Negeri Sembilan (20 PH seats to 16 BN seats), Johor (36 PH seats to 19 BN seats, while PAS has 1 seat) and Melaka (15 PH seats to 13 BN seats).
  • Additionally, BN (10 seats) has failed to retain the Terengganu state government, losing it to PAS (22 seats) as well as the Kedah state government (where it only won 3 seats out of 36).
  • BN has also failed to secure a simple majority in the state assemblies of Perak (27 out of 59 seats) and Sabah (29 out of 60 seats), although it will likely be still able to form government in the last thanks to the support of the Sabah Star party.
  • Key leaders in BN have also lost their seats, including:
    • Liow Tiong Lai. MCA President and Minister of Transport.
    • Dr S Subramaniam. MIC President and Minister of Health.
    • Mah Siew Kwong. Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (Gerakan) President and former Minister of Plantation Industries and Commodities).
    • Shabery Cheek. Minister of Agriculture and Agro-based industry.
    • Johari Abdul Ghani. Minister of Finance II.
    • Salleh Said Keruak. Minister of Communications and Multimedia.
    • Jamil Khir Baharom. Minister in Prime Minister’s Department.
    • Abdul Rahman Dahlan. Minister in Prime Minister’s Department.
    • Mohamed Khaled Nordin. Caretaker Johor Menteri Besar.
    • Ahmad Bashah Md Hanipaj. Caretaker Kedah Menteri Besar.
    • Joseph Pairin Kitingan. Caretaker Deputy Chief Minister of Sabah and Huguan Siao (paramount leader of the Kdazandusun-Murut community).
  • A total of 19 Deputy Ministers were also defeated at the polls:
    • Nasrudin Mansur (Lost Silamby 6,401 votes to Warisan)
    • Johari Baharum (Lost Kubang Pasuby 13,009 votes to Bersatu)
    • Rosnah Abd Rashid Shirlin (Lost Paparby 325 votes to Warisan)
    • Razali Ibrahim (Lost Muarby 6,952 votes to Bersatu)
    • Othman Aziz (Lost Jerlunby 5,866 votes to Bersatu)
    • Lee Chee Leong (Lost Kamparby 11,801 votes to DAP)
    • Hamim Samuri (Lost Ledangby 8,666 votes to PKR)
    • Nur Jazlan Mohamed (Lost Pulaiby 28,924 votes to Amanah)
    • Chua Tee Yong (Lost Labisby 3,408 votes to DAP)
    • Chew Mei Fun (Lost Raubby 3,159 votes to DAP)
    • Hilmi Yahaya (Lost Balik Pulauby 6,464 votes to PKR)
    • Aziz Kaprawi (Lost Sri Gadingto Bersatu by 3,288 votes to Bersatu)
    • Loga Bala Mohan (Lost Segambutby 45,702 votes to DAP)
    • Nogeh Gumbek (Lost Mas Gadingby 3,024 votes to DAP)
    • Mary Yap (Lost Tawau by 4,727 votes to PKR)
    • P Kamalanathan (Lost Hulu Selangorby 13,391 votes to PKR)
    • Chong Sin Woon (Lost Serembanby 30,694 votes to DAP)
    • Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki (Lost Pasir Putehby 1,360 votes to PAS)
    • S Devamany (Lost Sungai Siputby 5,607 votes to PKR)
  • A loss of this scale was widely unexpected, as the BN had initially been expected to win the GE14, albeit with a reduced majority.
  • Given that UMNO will have its General Assembly later this year, it is likely that party president Datuk Sri Najib Razak will face challenges from within the party as he has been widely perceived as one of the main reasons for BN’s loss in GE14.
  • Additionally, further questions will arise over UMNO’s legal status as a party as there are claims that it should be deregistered for failing to hold its General Assembly in 2017.
  • Currently, the seat composition within the BN is as follows:
    • UMNO : 54 seats
    • PBB : 13 seats
    • PRS : 3 seats
    • PDP : 2 seats
    • MIC : 2 seats
    • MCA : 1 seats
    • SUPP : 1 seats
    • UPKO : 1 seats
  • The large number of seats held by UMNO (approximately 68% of total BN seats) will be a key deciding factor in the balance of power within BN.
  • Additionally, the future of Gerakan, MIC and MCA are in question after the losses of their respective party presidents as well as their low number of seats.

 

East Malaysia no longer a “fixed deposit”

  • Sabah and Sarawak have traditionally been viewed as “fixed deposit” seats for the BN. However, this is unlikely to be the case moving forward.
  • In Sarawak, BN is down to 19 out of 31 parliamentary seats from the 23 it won in GE13, while in Sabah BN is down to 10 out of 25 seats from the 22 seats in won in GE13.
  • BN losses in Sarawak came as a surprise to many as several losses came from interior seats, traditionally regarded as the former ruling coalition’s strongholds.
  • It is not immediately clear what were the main driving factors in shifting the voter sentiment in Sarawak.
  • On the other hand, BN losses in Sabah was mainly due to the surge in support for Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan), led by former UMNO Vice-President Shafie Apdal.
  • Warisan has succeeded in winning 8 parliament seats and has contributed significantly in helping DAP win Tenom (P181) as well as helping PKR win Tawau (P190), Ranau (P179) and Putatan (P173).
  • Given that East Malaysia comprises 29 out of BN’s 79 seats (approximately 37%), East Malaysian parties—in particular BN’s Sarawak components—might form a significant bloc within BN.
  • There was some uncertainty if Warisan or BN would be able form the Sabah state government.
  • The caretaker BN Chief Minister Musa Aman has claimed that Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR) with 2 seats will be supporting BN in forming the state government, thus giving them a total of 31 seats. However, Warisan leaders are negotiating with UPKO (a BN component party) to defect, thus giving Warisan, PKR and DAP 34 sets to form the state government.
  • UPKO’s state assemblymen however have reportedly pledged loyalty to BN. As such, it seems likely that BN will remain in control in the state.

 

PAS gains ground

  • Although initially written off by many, PAS has successfully defended the Kelantan state government and has wrested Terengganu away from BN.
  • Additionally, they are the “kingmakers” to form the state government in Perak and in Kedah.
  • Notably, PAS had 13 seats left in parliament after the party was fractured due to the Amanah split.
  • The resurgence of PAS by winning 18 seats in GE14 across Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu is indicative of its durability, especially in its rural Malay heartlands.
  • It could be said that this highlights the role that conservative Islamic politics will continue to play in Malaysian politics.

 

Questions abound over new cabinet

  • The immediate concern for the new PH government would be to announce the new Cabinet after the Prime Minister is sworn in.
  • Given that most PH leaders have had little experience in government, the PH will need to convince the general public and key stakeholders of their ability to govern.
  • There are also concerns over key issues such as institutional reforms, the abolishment of GST (Goods and Services Tax) and economic policies which will have to be addressed by PH, in addition to addressing the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) and other scandals.
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